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The Financial Domino Effect: How to Profit Now in the Volatile Global Economy, by Ben Emons
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Predict and profit from the chain reactions of market turmoil
“If you care about the inner dynamics and investors’ reactions to the emerging new financial world that will increasingly consist of ‘path-dependent, multimodal, fat-tailed outcomes,’ Ben Emons’s new book is a must-read. In a coherent and clear framework, Ben shows how falling dominoes in a world of fast markets and uniquely new possibili¬ties creates a market landscape we might never have prepared for.”
—Vineer Bhansali, Managing Director, Portfolio Manager, PIMCO
“At some point after getting your financial life in order, you may well have money to invest. Where should you put it, especially when worldwide markets are in flux? Ben Emons, a senior vice president at Pimco, the investment company that runs the world’s largest bond fund, addresses that question in The Financial Domino Effect.”
—The New York Times
“A great book; it’s a very smart book. This is not general reading but it’s something accessible to anyone."
—Tom Keene, Bloommberg Radio
When a major political or financial event happens, the impact disseminates like a contagion across markets and sovereign boundaries. Like a row of toppling dominoes, the effect of the crisis accelerates along various paths. The Financial Domino Effect enables you to benefit from these moving catastrophes and helps you navigate current changes taking place in governmental and financial systems.
At the heart of this progressive book is a powerful framework for analyzing and interpreting the variety of connected influences in the three main domino effects categories—social-political, economic, and financial. By examining the aftermath of such recent milestone events as the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the Occupy Wall Street movement, and the Middle East protests, it shows you how to apply domino theory to become a more knowledgeable and astute portfolio manager. Written with the everyday inves¬tor in mind, this hands-on resource takes you to the next level by delving into such consequential topics as:
The second part of the book goes into great depth examining the euro zone debt crisis through the framework. This crisis is particularly unique because it is a domino effect of three kinds—social, economic, and financial—and it has not fully played out. This timely guide takes you step by step through the crisis to a final analysis. In the end, you will be prepared to plan for the myriad of far-reaching consequences and balance your portfolio.
Financial crises will happen with high frequency. The Financial Domino Effect helps you stay on top when it all goes down.
- Sales Rank: #2060962 in eBooks
- Published on: 2012-11-16
- Released on: 2012-11-16
- Format: Kindle eBook
Most helpful customer reviews
4 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
Another Book Review from the Aleph Blog
By David Merkel
This is a good book. It has one significant problem, though. It is very good at describing the problems that exist, but does not follow through on the subtitle: How to Profit Now in the Volatile Global Economy. That might be a publisher error. They want to sell books, and a book that describes the problem will have a small audience, while a book that shows how you can profit from a problem would have a wide audience. For the most part, this book describes the problem well, and that is good.
So what's the problem? Most bond managers intuitively know that most bonds either trade at "normal" or "distressed" levels -- there is very little in-between. Those are two "stable" places where bonds trade, and with a few exceptions, different groups of investors are involved in each place. They have different ratios, standards, and metrics.
The book spends a lot of time on the Eurozone, with its bevy of distressed governments. The distress stems from deficits, over-regulation, and entitlements. The "domino effect" part of the title comes from core Eurozone banks lending to distressed fringe Eurozone entities. If the fringe fails so do core Eurozone banks. If core Eurozone banks fail, so does the Eurozone.
But the book offers us precious little of new information on how to profit in an uncertain environment. The last few pages offer a few general ideas, but even with my outside knowledge I have no idea on how to apply that easily.
Quibbles
On page 43, he describes government liabilities as "future tax receipts." Sorry, future tax receipts are assets, not liabilities.
Who would benefit from this book: If you want to understand the nonlinear dynamics of the bond market, buy this book. If you want to make money, don't buy this book.
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Interesting, Well Written, and Recommended
By Voracious Reader
As the introduction alludes to, developing a framework to analyze the interaction of politics, the global economy, and financial markets, is essential when managing a portfolio, regardless of whether you are an individual investor or sophisticated institution.
Ben Emons begins by building a framework upon which we can make sense of the cause and effect dynamics that move asset prices, elicit policy responses, are transmitted via the financial markets, impact global economies, and then impact asset prices to close the loop. The second half of this book focuses heavily on the Eurozone, applying the before mentioned framework to make sense of how the European periphery, core, policy makers, banks, investors, and others, interact. Emons does a deep dive into how policy makers have attempted to avoid a Greek exit from the European Union, and concludes that despite the costs, and a Greek exit is still a likely outcome. Additionally, if Greece exits the Eurozone, this would be the beginning of the end of the Eurozone as we know it. The final chapter discusses strategies for navigating markets and ends with a recommendation for the composition of a portfolio positioned to maintain and increase in value in the event of a Greek exit, or other adverse market movement for that matter.
This book is well written, an easy read, and is appropriate for a variety of readers. As an American attempting to make sense of the deluge of Eurozone headlines over the past three years, I appreciate the detail in which Emons describes the various Eurozone policies, their rationale, and how the market has responded. I recommend this book.
2 of 2 people found the following review helpful.
Great book to help you better understand the Euro Crisis and how it is impacting your investments...
By Richard Ow
This book can help you understand how the Euro Crisis and the various dominoes fall (and there are many dominoes). Concepts you learn from business school in macroeconomics, corporate finance, capital markets and risk management are all used in conjunction with historical cases to support the author's perspective. After gaining this insight, it will enable you to choose the right investment vehicles (particularly in government bonds and TIPS) and time your investments better.
I love this book because it helped me connect all the dots and see the logic behind the decisions made in Europe during the Crisis. The author explains it in great detail without over-complicating it for the reader. Great weekend read!
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